* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/29/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 44 47 51 58 61 64 68 68 61 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 42 44 47 51 58 61 64 68 68 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 42 45 49 55 60 65 69 65 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 12 12 13 5 4 8 16 22 26 35 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 2 -1 4 1 -1 -3 -2 2 7 9 SHEAR DIR 257 213 206 206 216 167 188 115 207 224 228 229 222 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.0 22.2 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 138 141 145 146 142 136 129 119 93 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 121 123 125 128 127 123 118 114 106 85 74 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -53.0 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 13 12 12 9 9 5 1 0 700-500 MB RH 39 38 36 38 38 38 43 46 47 50 48 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 10 12 12 11 11 13 13 13 16 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -58 -60 -64 -75 -92 -52 -53 -69 -25 33 35 -16 200 MB DIV 0 2 -16 -9 3 -20 24 34 43 60 56 53 20 700-850 TADV 9 8 5 2 5 8 3 -3 3 -11 24 24 -3 LAND (KM) 2102 2018 1935 1861 1791 1725 1786 1700 1450 1183 1021 1056 1325 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.4 25.8 27.2 29.1 31.4 33.7 36.5 39.6 43.7 48.2 LONG(DEG W) 46.5 47.5 48.4 49.4 50.3 51.9 52.7 52.6 51.5 49.0 45.1 40.3 35.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 15 20 25 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 35 29 22 20 22 22 11 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 21. 24. 28. 28. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/29/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/29/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)