* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/29/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 75 76 79 71 60 51 37 28 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 75 76 79 71 60 51 37 28 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 69 69 67 62 53 44 36 29 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 5 6 18 19 13 8 8 5 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -5 2 1 1 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 344 199 134 121 101 95 118 135 134 125 138 151 171 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.6 25.9 24.7 23.2 22.3 21.5 21.2 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 137 134 128 121 109 93 84 76 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -49.7 -50.0 -49.6 -49.8 -49.6 -50.1 -50.2 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 67 68 59 54 47 45 41 42 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 25 25 23 26 25 23 23 19 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 55 58 67 88 95 81 65 63 59 72 72 200 MB DIV 66 59 57 40 26 31 -15 17 23 0 -8 -17 -10 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 4 2 8 3 LAND (KM) 593 565 548 543 546 557 572 630 741 824 949 1095 1257 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.6 113.1 113.6 114.1 115.1 116.2 117.4 118.9 120.5 122.4 124.4 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 16 19 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 3. 9. 8. 6. 6. 1. -1. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 16. 19. 11. 0. -9. -23. -32. -42. -49. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/29/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)