* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 59 58 51 44 39 35 29 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 48 39 34 31 28 27 27 28 29 29 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 48 39 34 30 28 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 14 18 12 7 14 15 18 13 18 32 40 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 0 2 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 274 263 286 315 280 302 270 281 274 323 326 324 295 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.7 26.1 24.8 23.8 23.1 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 142 132 114 103 96 91 91 93 93 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 120 112 97 88 82 79 78 79 79 80 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.5 -48.9 -49.1 -48.7 -48.7 -49.3 -50.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 6 3 8 5 9 5 9 3 7 2 7 700-500 MB RH 57 53 52 53 53 55 61 62 58 53 51 55 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 32 31 31 28 22 19 19 17 15 11 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 72 58 37 31 21 -41 -39 -65 -31 -44 -12 17 50 200 MB DIV 35 44 14 26 30 8 43 49 57 4 5 32 9 700-850 TADV 0 6 11 12 0 6 8 9 12 5 12 14 27 LAND (KM) -50 -69 -86 -155 -238 -422 -622 -782 -921 -999 -999 -891 -766 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.2 30.5 31.2 31.9 33.6 35.4 37.1 38.6 39.6 40.1 40.6 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 90.8 91.2 91.5 92.0 92.4 93.1 93.2 92.7 91.6 89.9 87.5 85.6 83.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 27 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -14. -17. -18. -22. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -9. -16. -21. -25. -31. -41. -51. -57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/29/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)