* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 53 58 61 66 69 71 68 60 46 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 53 58 61 66 69 71 68 60 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 51 53 57 61 66 68 70 65 56 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 13 8 6 8 5 9 24 40 54 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -1 -1 2 -2 5 3 3 7 2 5 SHEAR DIR 232 219 225 235 230 247 344 360 189 207 209 218 229 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.1 26.4 23.3 18.8 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 142 144 144 141 134 128 122 99 82 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 123 126 127 125 122 117 112 108 90 77 72 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 11 10 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 39 39 39 37 41 46 47 50 53 40 30 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 9 11 12 10 13 14 15 17 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -74 -76 -92 -107 -77 -67 -95 -87 2 18 -23 -128 200 MB DIV 3 -11 -15 -2 0 5 25 0 46 38 45 0 -7 700-850 TADV 11 8 4 3 4 11 -5 9 0 1 8 -22 -63 LAND (KM) 2063 1995 1929 1874 1825 1857 1760 1502 1234 1042 1076 1340 1289 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.5 25.8 26.4 27.0 28.9 30.9 33.3 36.0 39.0 42.3 46.4 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 48.0 48.8 49.7 50.6 51.6 51.6 50.7 49.1 45.8 41.0 35.2 28.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 10 11 14 17 23 27 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 33 26 23 22 24 11 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 8. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 16. 21. 24. 26. 23. 15. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/29/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)