* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 63 67 60 53 42 28 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 63 67 60 53 42 28 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 64 64 61 55 46 36 28 21 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 7 9 21 23 16 8 9 8 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -1 -2 0 6 1 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 10 51 113 99 87 112 119 146 138 134 117 151 194 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.3 25.6 24.1 22.3 21.4 21.3 21.0 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 135 132 124 117 103 84 74 74 72 66 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -49.8 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 69 68 59 52 49 44 45 40 31 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 22 21 26 23 23 21 18 17 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 40 48 50 58 70 84 81 75 48 45 47 69 78 200 MB DIV 52 56 39 11 15 12 24 34 8 7 -4 -14 2 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 3 4 3 6 8 4 LAND (KM) 593 571 556 545 544 543 571 626 678 751 905 1081 1295 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.9 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.4 22.9 23.2 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.1 113.5 114.0 114.4 115.5 116.4 117.7 119.2 120.7 122.2 124.5 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 5 6 8 8 7 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 19 18 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 3. 0. 0. -2. -7. -8. -13. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 7. 0. -7. -18. -32. -42. -54. -62. -69. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)