* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 42 37 34 31 29 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 41 35 31 29 27 27 27 28 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 40 34 31 29 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 14 11 10 5 15 6 15 31 35 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 -3 -1 2 0 3 2 6 -2 -1 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 258 293 308 301 279 297 279 290 310 351 340 332 301 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.7 26.9 25.4 24.2 23.5 23.1 23.1 23.7 24.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 143 132 123 108 98 94 91 92 96 97 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 120 112 104 92 84 80 78 79 81 82 83 200 MB T (C) -48.5 -49.1 -49.5 -49.2 -48.9 -49.8 -50.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 3 8 9 4 11 3 9 1 7 1 8 700-500 MB RH 54 51 52 52 50 56 55 57 50 51 58 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 29 26 25 20 18 17 16 13 9 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 58 34 27 17 -13 -39 -40 -48 -48 -31 -26 7 0 200 MB DIV 45 23 12 23 27 31 51 34 4 -23 -3 -6 10 700-850 TADV 7 13 11 0 14 6 21 -1 14 8 21 10 38 LAND (KM) -67 -96 -144 -237 -325 -533 -718 -846 -947 -993 -960 -776 -605 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.9 32.7 34.6 36.4 37.8 38.9 39.6 40.0 40.2 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.5 91.9 92.4 92.8 93.2 93.0 92.3 90.9 89.0 86.5 84.3 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. -18. -22. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -29. -37. -45. -48. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/30/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)