* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 64 69 71 74 74 72 59 45 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 64 69 71 74 74 72 59 45 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 56 58 61 65 69 71 72 68 60 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 8 3 3 5 12 16 19 35 58 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -2 -1 1 0 0 -1 -6 2 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 218 212 226 240 237 189 358 294 261 225 211 219 223 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.6 26.9 25.5 22.0 18.1 16.2 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 142 144 144 142 134 127 114 92 78 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 126 127 126 123 118 113 102 83 73 69 67 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 13 12 12 10 8 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 40 38 38 40 45 50 52 58 60 48 39 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 9 10 12 14 13 14 15 19 16 8 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -76 -91 -104 -83 -57 -79 -97 -29 26 -7 -38 -100 200 MB DIV -9 -17 -15 -2 -5 46 19 37 35 54 50 -8 -7 700-850 TADV 9 4 2 1 6 3 -6 14 -8 -45 -45 -34 -42 LAND (KM) 2002 1954 1912 1902 1901 1796 1518 1239 1088 1146 1382 1362 1027 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.7 28.6 30.6 33.2 36.3 39.7 43.5 47.3 50.4 52.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 48.7 49.5 50.2 50.8 51.2 50.3 47.7 43.7 39.2 34.4 29.7 25.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 12 16 21 24 26 24 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 27 27 29 27 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 7. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 21. 24. 24. 22. 9. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/30/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)