* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 69 67 58 46 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 69 67 58 46 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 67 66 59 50 40 31 24 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 10 17 16 20 9 13 8 9 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -4 0 -1 0 0 2 1 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 87 177 88 83 111 114 135 127 113 118 116 165 199 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.0 24.8 23.5 22.0 21.2 20.4 20.2 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 135 133 130 122 109 96 80 72 64 61 61 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 70 67 59 50 46 44 41 31 26 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 22 25 25 22 21 18 17 15 13 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 56 67 65 84 75 54 37 42 66 65 27 200 MB DIV 53 42 35 43 16 0 19 0 15 6 -16 -4 -2 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 -3 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 4 2 LAND (KM) 546 533 530 526 518 506 562 629 660 723 854 979 1077 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.3 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.4 113.8 114.2 114.5 115.6 116.9 118.0 119.3 120.7 122.5 124.0 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 14 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -8. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 2. -7. -19. -33. -46. -58. -70. -80. -87. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)