* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 36 34 30 27 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 28 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 32 30 28 27 28 29 29 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 12 10 14 9 16 15 20 26 40 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 2 0 1 1 1 7 0 0 -2 5 SHEAR DIR 288 309 318 284 303 265 257 292 318 344 331 312 282 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.0 26.2 24.4 23.1 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 141 133 124 116 101 92 88 90 94 96 97 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 113 106 99 88 79 76 77 80 82 81 81 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -49.6 -49.3 -49.0 -49.6 -50.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 9 10 5 10 5 8 2 8 3 9 6 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 50 53 55 58 49 45 49 59 62 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 27 25 23 22 19 18 15 15 12 8 6 10 850 MB ENV VOR 29 17 12 -19 -54 -30 -64 -49 -82 -32 -12 27 64 200 MB DIV 26 15 10 24 19 61 23 30 -4 15 0 2 10 700-850 TADV 15 11 0 12 11 6 3 10 7 19 18 45 8 LAND (KM) -96 -151 -223 -328 -423 -688 -898 -988 -985 -988 -860 -704 -588 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.2 31.8 32.7 33.6 36.0 38.2 39.2 39.4 39.6 40.2 40.4 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.3 91.7 92.1 92.6 93.0 93.3 92.7 91.7 90.1 88.0 85.3 83.4 82.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 12 9 6 7 9 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -11. -14. -15. -18. -22. -23. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -31. -40. -46. -47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/30/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)