* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 58 63 61 65 67 67 59 47 37 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 58 63 61 65 67 67 59 47 37 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 56 58 62 64 64 63 59 54 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 7 0 5 10 10 7 9 32 59 80 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 3 1 2 0 0 4 -1 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 221 229 245 168 307 348 330 336 254 222 228 237 244 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.0 26.5 24.2 20.4 17.0 15.4 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 144 144 143 138 127 122 104 86 76 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 126 125 124 121 112 108 93 79 72 68 66 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 40 41 43 46 53 55 58 59 48 37 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 9 12 13 10 13 13 17 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -94 -102 -86 -73 -71 -97 -87 -14 -14 -61 -65 -104 200 MB DIV -15 -4 9 0 10 32 15 32 31 39 -7 -28 -19 700-850 TADV 3 1 4 7 5 4 2 1 -6 -79 -84 -36 -31 LAND (KM) 1961 1939 1924 1942 1922 1673 1377 1174 1124 1248 1506 1184 874 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.5 31.8 34.8 37.8 41.0 44.8 49.2 52.4 54.2 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.3 49.9 50.3 50.7 50.3 48.5 45.4 41.5 37.1 32.4 27.7 23.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 14 18 21 24 26 24 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 28 30 37 17 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. -2. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -3. 0. 0. 3. 2. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 11. 15. 17. 17. 9. -3. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/30/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)