* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 67 64 55 45 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 67 64 55 45 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 66 64 57 47 37 29 22 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 12 18 17 16 15 10 11 5 12 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 0 -1 2 -1 2 -1 4 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 190 113 98 100 126 130 131 132 159 174 157 186 204 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.6 24.2 22.8 21.8 21.0 19.8 19.8 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 129 127 118 103 88 78 70 60 60 61 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 63 61 53 49 45 45 39 31 25 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 21 24 25 25 22 21 20 17 15 13 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 69 67 74 74 62 38 40 46 54 59 13 200 MB DIV 37 28 41 -3 13 37 21 10 0 -4 5 -1 -14 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -3 -1 0 0 2 2 4 6 5 1 2 LAND (KM) 517 507 506 508 499 480 512 584 656 733 822 985 1164 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.9 22.9 23.3 23.5 24.0 24.9 25.0 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.7 114.1 114.5 114.9 115.8 116.9 118.2 119.5 121.0 122.6 124.4 126.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -1. -10. -20. -34. -49. -59. -71. -79. -89. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)