* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/30/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 69 72 74 76 75 77 72 66 54 44 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 69 72 74 76 75 77 72 66 54 44 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 70 72 74 73 71 68 62 56 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 5 7 10 8 7 7 11 23 46 67 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 1 0 3 -2 0 4 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 231 256 264 302 357 22 318 255 209 219 227 247 264 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.7 26.9 26.1 23.2 19.3 16.6 15.6 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 143 141 135 126 119 98 82 76 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 125 124 123 118 111 105 88 76 72 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 42 46 47 52 55 56 59 55 47 33 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 12 11 13 12 14 13 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -95 -101 -93 -83 -68 -75 -87 -73 -9 -26 -70 -91 -83 200 MB DIV -8 9 1 12 36 10 34 25 46 46 -14 -28 -27 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 10 2 0 19 6 -24 -27 -67 -28 -32 LAND (KM) 1938 1937 1941 1942 1824 1568 1305 1123 1117 1352 1345 860 485 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.6 28.3 29.4 30.4 32.8 35.7 38.8 42.2 45.7 49.3 52.1 53.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 49.7 50.1 50.4 50.6 49.9 47.6 44.5 40.5 35.3 28.9 22.9 17.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 11 11 15 19 21 24 27 26 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 28 32 25 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 2. 1. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. 17. 12. 6. -6. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/30/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/30/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)