* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/30/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 72 69 61 51 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 72 69 61 51 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 72 70 67 58 48 38 29 22 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 16 16 15 13 10 10 9 6 8 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -3 -5 0 0 1 1 2 5 2 2 SHEAR DIR 56 62 90 113 140 131 147 142 162 152 185 201 224 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.0 24.8 23.7 22.5 21.4 20.8 20.0 20.1 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 130 126 122 109 97 85 74 68 60 62 61 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -49.7 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 60 62 52 55 53 58 55 47 38 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 25 25 24 23 22 21 18 17 15 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 55 68 68 70 73 69 46 39 25 28 22 25 13 200 MB DIV 29 32 18 -15 -12 37 2 7 4 -2 1 -14 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -1 0 0 0 2 5 2 4 2 8 4 LAND (KM) 492 487 469 453 445 474 528 551 601 705 851 1026 1211 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.7 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.0 114.3 114.8 115.2 116.3 117.2 118.2 119.4 120.9 122.7 124.7 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -24. -30. -34. -39. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -1. -9. -19. -34. -47. -59. -69. -77. -86. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/30/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)