* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/30/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 85 88 88 87 85 80 71 57 43 37 V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 85 88 88 87 85 80 71 57 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 75 82 86 87 88 85 81 77 69 60 53 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 9 7 13 8 13 19 39 67 68 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 5 0 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 270 276 290 313 317 307 237 208 211 221 226 251 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.1 26.7 24.7 21.2 17.8 15.8 15.2 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 138 128 124 107 88 78 74 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 124 123 120 112 110 95 80 73 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 42 45 47 51 50 54 59 54 44 35 28 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 13 13 11 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -101 -83 -77 -68 -62 -100 -98 -36 -3 -42 -69 -89 -115 200 MB DIV 16 -17 -9 32 29 7 28 36 53 18 -14 -37 -44 700-850 TADV 2 8 15 9 1 12 -11 13 -47 -70 -94 -84 -77 LAND (KM) 1915 1939 1934 1808 1681 1412 1187 1101 1216 1491 1160 740 422 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.6 29.4 30.6 31.7 34.4 37.4 40.6 44.0 47.5 51.0 53.8 55.3 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.3 50.6 50.6 50.5 48.9 46.0 42.3 38.0 32.9 27.0 21.3 16.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 13 17 20 22 24 26 24 20 16 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 32 24 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 10. 5. -4. -18. -32. -38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/30/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/30/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 11( 23) 11( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)