* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/30/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 70 65 57 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 70 65 57 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 69 66 56 45 34 26 20 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 12 8 12 16 8 11 6 11 9 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 0 0 3 3 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 78 102 120 140 140 162 163 178 161 186 187 208 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.7 24.2 22.4 21.5 21.1 20.3 20.3 20.1 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 127 123 119 104 85 75 71 64 64 60 59 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -49.9 -50.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 61 59 56 47 44 46 44 34 28 23 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 23 23 20 22 19 18 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 61 67 69 74 68 64 37 39 44 55 63 40 29 200 MB DIV 33 18 -7 -6 7 39 8 9 -2 -9 -11 -5 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 0 -1 2 3 5 8 7 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 495 501 484 474 473 531 604 662 754 872 1062 1196 1266 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.7 23.4 23.7 23.8 24.1 24.5 24.7 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.4 114.8 115.3 115.7 117.0 118.6 119.8 121.1 122.7 125.0 126.5 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 8 7 6 6 9 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -21. -29. -34. -38. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -2. 0. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -28. -42. -57. -69. -78. -87. -96. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/30/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)