* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 85 88 87 85 84 81 73 61 44 31 24 V (KT) LAND 80 83 85 88 87 85 84 81 73 61 44 31 24 V (KT) LGE mod 80 85 87 87 86 81 77 72 63 54 48 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 7 6 8 10 9 21 38 55 67 66 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 2 5 1 -2 -2 2 0 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 267 291 319 334 13 306 274 240 221 227 240 252 277 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.9 25.9 22.8 18.8 16.4 15.4 14.8 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 138 133 126 117 95 81 76 74 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 120 117 112 104 86 75 72 71 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -51.3 -51.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 49 49 54 53 54 57 57 46 41 35 32 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 12 13 14 14 9 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -79 -70 -68 -86 -101 -62 10 -32 -72 -100 -99 -124 200 MB DIV -19 -8 30 41 5 16 21 38 26 1 -10 -22 -19 700-850 TADV 5 19 6 9 -10 22 -3 -32 -55 -54 -51 -49 -27 LAND (KM) 1920 1923 1812 1679 1548 1295 1109 1145 1383 1303 744 351 162 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.5 30.5 31.8 33.0 35.8 39.2 42.6 46.2 49.7 53.1 55.8 56.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.5 50.6 50.7 50.3 49.8 47.6 44.1 39.8 34.7 28.5 21.2 14.4 8.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 15 19 23 25 27 28 26 20 17 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 27 21 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -15. -22. -28. -32. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -4. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -7. -19. -36. -49. -56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/31/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/31/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 10( 25) 10( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)