* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 08/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 67 75 81 82 83 83 85 88 88 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 61 67 75 81 82 83 83 85 88 88 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 56 61 65 73 76 77 77 76 76 77 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 13 11 16 14 20 18 22 19 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 0 4 7 6 12 5 3 -2 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 49 6 8 358 8 331 307 323 292 301 255 286 295 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 135 136 141 144 147 152 157 160 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 134 134 134 136 136 137 139 142 140 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 64 61 61 63 60 65 67 66 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 20 22 23 26 25 24 26 28 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 106 91 81 66 56 44 26 -15 -36 -48 -32 -27 -18 200 MB DIV 51 40 34 53 46 66 60 19 49 39 57 71 37 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -8 -6 -6 -2 0 3 -3 9 -3 -6 3 LAND (KM) 1282 1255 1247 1238 1186 1057 943 807 784 876 1065 1195 1268 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 18.1 19.4 20.9 22.7 24.6 26.8 28.0 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.9 47.4 48.8 50.4 51.9 54.7 56.8 58.5 59.8 60.6 60.8 60.5 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 15 14 11 11 11 10 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 29 32 47 57 60 62 39 50 46 38 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 22. 30. 36. 37. 38. 38. 40. 43. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 08/31/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 08/31/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)