* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 70 68 55 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 76 75 70 68 55 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 74 71 67 55 44 33 25 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 9 9 8 6 9 10 9 13 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 2 0 2 0 -1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 75 102 106 149 138 171 174 186 191 191 205 209 212 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.7 25.1 23.5 22.1 21.1 20.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 125 119 113 96 81 71 64 60 60 59 59 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -49.5 -49.7 -49.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 61 61 57 54 49 48 51 47 42 35 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 19 21 18 18 17 13 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 58 65 61 59 56 36 26 21 21 24 31 20 13 200 MB DIV 25 -1 6 -7 8 22 15 -2 -9 -3 -10 -1 1 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 3 4 5 7 3 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 456 436 422 420 431 518 572 624 710 831 974 1107 1177 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.4 114.7 115.3 115.8 117.3 118.6 119.9 121.3 122.8 124.4 125.9 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -28. -36. -43. -47. -51. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -13. -15. -18. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -5. -7. -20. -34. -49. -66. -78. -88. -98.-106. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/31/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)