* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/31/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 94 93 94 88 87 82 70 55 54 44 43 V (KT) LAND 90 93 94 93 94 88 87 82 70 55 54 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 90 93 93 91 88 82 77 70 59 49 41 37 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 2 9 8 8 7 8 16 39 51 55 51 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 9 9 8 3 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 299 337 354 8 317 314 227 204 223 220 231 256 N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.7 24.8 20.8 17.1 15.9 15.6 15.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 132 128 124 108 88 78 75 74 73 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 120 116 112 110 97 81 73 71 70 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.6 -52.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 10 7 2 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 52 52 53 56 56 50 34 33 34 28 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 14 11 13 16 18 17 29 28 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -68 -62 -84 -91 -109 -19 10 -32 -155 -187 -111 N/A 200 MB DIV -6 29 38 12 -6 48 20 53 4 -15 -19 -37 N/A 700-850 TADV 12 2 7 -8 7 -2 -16 4 11 -46 -22 -14 N/A LAND (KM) 1911 1797 1682 1538 1399 1199 1122 1273 1536 938 389 3 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.7 31.7 33.1 34.5 37.2 40.4 44.2 48.2 51.1 52.9 54.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.7 50.6 50.4 49.7 49.0 46.2 42.2 37.1 31.0 23.8 15.9 8.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 15 16 20 24 28 28 26 25 23 N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 27 21 11 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -25. -33. -41. -46. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 14. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 4. -2. -3. -8. -20. -35. -36. -46. -47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/31/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/31/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 16( 26) 16( 38) 11( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)