* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 08/31/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 72 76 78 80 80 79 74 73 70 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 72 76 78 80 80 79 74 73 70 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 67 70 73 76 76 76 75 73 70 67 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 15 9 14 10 17 20 24 24 28 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 14 1 16 5 5 2 6 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 16 357 349 337 338 313 321 328 306 291 292 280 262 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 133 134 137 142 146 149 154 159 158 154 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 130 132 134 137 138 138 140 143 137 129 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.7 -52.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 64 66 68 65 64 64 65 60 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 22 23 24 24 24 25 27 28 27 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 92 79 61 48 42 26 -5 -20 -40 -46 -23 -12 -11 200 MB DIV 39 51 71 44 26 70 32 44 25 47 30 55 18 700-850 TADV -4 -11 -10 -3 -1 -2 -4 -1 2 18 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 1249 1238 1232 1238 1151 1058 901 766 767 908 1123 1241 1274 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.2 18.5 20.0 21.5 23.3 25.3 27.4 28.6 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 48.5 49.8 51.2 52.6 55.2 57.3 59.2 60.6 61.1 60.8 60.8 61.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 39 54 59 64 56 41 56 41 38 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 24. 19. 18. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 08/31/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 08/31/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 5( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)