* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/31/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 55 50 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 55 50 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 55 51 41 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 11 14 7 11 9 12 12 16 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -1 0 -5 0 0 1 2 -1 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 139 144 149 122 130 153 168 179 165 167 181 198 200 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.2 23.0 21.6 20.9 20.3 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 117 111 103 90 76 69 63 59 60 60 59 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.9 -50.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 56 55 53 49 50 48 42 37 34 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 21 21 20 18 17 14 12 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 67 62 58 58 50 25 20 26 28 20 31 14 17 200 MB DIV 11 20 -10 9 30 2 13 12 -7 0 -6 -2 0 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 3 7 6 9 7 1 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 420 408 405 435 475 540 573 649 779 909 1035 1130 1187 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.5 24.1 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.9 115.3 116.0 116.6 117.8 119.0 120.3 121.9 123.4 124.8 125.8 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -25. -32. -37. -40. -43. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -27. -40. -55. -68. -80. -89. -95.-100. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/31/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)