* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 08/31/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 65 65 70 71 71 69 68 64 64 60 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 65 65 70 71 71 69 68 64 64 60 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 65 67 68 68 66 64 62 59 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 12 18 15 21 22 27 30 33 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 11 6 6 9 4 1 5 -7 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 354 2 337 312 330 311 316 323 309 307 295 284 289 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 137 139 145 147 152 156 158 159 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 131 133 134 137 138 139 139 138 135 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 66 66 63 65 67 65 65 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 23 24 22 26 25 26 25 26 27 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 83 63 49 43 29 16 -28 -45 -52 -44 -43 -10 4 200 MB DIV 42 71 54 54 57 48 49 33 48 29 51 35 28 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -2 0 0 -1 13 8 6 0 4 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1286 1286 1276 1201 1145 1019 850 786 820 896 963 1043 1116 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.6 21.0 22.6 24.1 25.4 26.3 27.1 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.4 49.8 51.1 52.5 53.8 56.1 58.1 59.7 60.8 61.5 61.9 61.9 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 36 48 49 61 63 41 48 62 79 62 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 10. 15. 16. 16. 14. 13. 9. 9. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 08/31/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 08/31/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)