* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/31/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 57 53 47 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 57 53 47 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 54 50 41 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 10 7 4 7 10 9 14 17 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 135 143 130 139 167 107 177 184 185 188 202 209 212 SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.4 23.8 22.2 21.2 20.6 20.3 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 111 105 99 82 72 65 62 60 63 65 63 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -50.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 52 51 49 51 50 46 42 41 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 18 20 21 18 16 15 13 11 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 64 60 57 54 38 19 12 20 11 17 9 18 9 200 MB DIV 8 -8 15 35 20 16 0 -6 -5 -6 3 -2 -10 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 3 5 3 4 10 4 7 5 7 7 LAND (KM) 439 447 463 502 545 618 676 762 849 947 1038 1150 1291 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.6 116.1 116.7 117.3 118.8 120.2 121.5 122.5 123.6 124.6 125.8 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -20. -28. -36. -40. -42. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -19. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -18. -30. -43. -57. -70. -79. -90. -95.-101. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/31/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)