* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/31/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 76 77 76 76 72 60 41 28 21 17 19 V (KT) LAND 80 77 76 77 76 76 72 60 41 28 21 17 19 V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 74 73 72 70 66 58 52 46 43 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 6 7 8 8 19 40 49 49 42 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 2 0 6 2 8 11 10 2 3 SHEAR DIR 317 351 297 323 356 245 200 204 227 236 240 256 295 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.7 24.8 20.1 16.3 14.9 13.9 13.2 14.1 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 130 127 125 109 87 79 76 71 66 66 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 114 113 111 99 82 76 73 68 63 63 65 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -50.4 -49.1 -48.0 -51.6 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 54 56 56 57 47 42 44 42 40 39 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 9 12 12 13 14 13 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -87 -99 -97 -97 -16 -19 -72 0 76 84 -29 -148 200 MB DIV 39 4 2 37 46 30 41 13 29 19 2 -17 -36 700-850 TADV 5 3 4 13 -3 -8 -78 -99 -123 -125 -28 -51 -32 LAND (KM) 1692 1574 1458 1334 1233 1110 1278 1282 504 185 143 185 63 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.8 33.9 35.4 36.9 40.4 45.0 49.9 55.2 58.5 59.6 59.2 56.6 LONG(DEG W) 50.5 49.9 49.3 47.7 46.1 42.4 36.6 28.3 17.5 8.7 3.7 1.1 1.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 20 21 27 34 40 36 21 10 8 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -22. -28. -34. -38. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -8. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -8. -20. -39. -52. -59. -63. -61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/31/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/31/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 5( 16) 5( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)