* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 08/31/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 65 68 72 73 72 74 70 74 72 78 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 65 68 72 73 72 74 70 74 72 78 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 63 65 67 68 67 65 63 61 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 13 15 17 18 21 31 29 26 16 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 8 9 10 0 6 1 2 0 7 4 2 SHEAR DIR 360 5 306 329 331 321 328 306 312 308 294 251 263 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 138 141 142 146 149 153 157 158 159 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 134 136 135 138 138 138 138 136 135 132 131 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 64 60 58 64 58 62 60 63 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 24 23 24 23 24 24 27 24 29 28 35 850 MB ENV VOR 67 54 46 36 22 -1 -22 -49 -50 -36 0 -9 26 200 MB DIV 56 52 51 64 55 35 46 43 51 31 43 14 63 700-850 TADV -7 -1 2 0 0 -1 8 7 20 14 23 8 12 LAND (KM) 1255 1220 1145 1098 1065 850 711 693 760 837 910 958 993 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 20.0 21.5 22.9 24.3 25.3 26.1 26.6 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.7 53.1 54.4 55.6 57.8 59.8 61.2 62.1 62.5 62.7 62.8 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 9 7 5 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 42 52 52 58 62 54 46 62 68 80 76 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 2. 6. 5. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 18. 17. 19. 15. 19. 17. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 08/31/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 08/31/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)