* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/31/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 51 47 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 51 47 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 54 50 46 36 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 8 4 12 8 11 13 20 20 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -1 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 137 124 142 167 178 187 203 196 194 201 213 220 220 SST (C) 25.4 24.9 24.3 23.5 22.7 21.5 20.9 20.2 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 110 104 96 88 75 69 62 64 62 61 62 63 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -50.4 -50.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 55 53 54 50 51 50 45 38 35 36 36 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 21 18 19 16 14 12 9 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 57 40 27 22 28 37 23 27 15 22 30 200 MB DIV 0 20 33 12 5 0 5 -13 0 -8 11 -4 11 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 4 8 6 9 10 10 6 15 8 18 LAND (KM) 458 480 508 572 606 691 787 907 1052 1170 1236 1341 1417 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.3 116.8 117.6 118.4 120.1 121.5 123.1 124.8 126.1 126.8 127.9 129.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 8 8 7 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -6. -14. -21. -29. -36. -39. -41. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -16. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -9. -13. -27. -41. -56. -69. -79. -89. -94.-100. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/31/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)