* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 09/01/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 64 64 64 63 56 43 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 64 64 64 63 56 43 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 65 62 61 60 59 54 47 40 35 32 32 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 10 3 6 14 51 66 63 64 59 47 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 3 0 1 1 3 0 -2 1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 18 332 344 12 249 208 210 218 236 242 260 278 N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.9 26.7 25.9 22.0 17.3 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.2 14.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 126 125 118 93 78 73 71 70 70 70 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 112 112 106 86 74 69 67 66 66 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -51.4 -52.5 -53.5 -55.4 -57.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 53 53 56 52 38 37 34 35 38 35 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 6 4 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -99 -98 -100 -62 14 -26 -48 -109 -118 -155 -165 N/A 200 MB DIV 5 6 38 54 20 22 19 -18 -22 -13 -7 -13 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 22 23 -8 6 -40 -123 -125 -74 -44 -18 -4 N/A LAND (KM) 1534 1414 1305 1187 1103 1131 1485 1141 744 441 195 50 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.4 35.7 37.5 39.2 43.5 48.5 52.0 54.1 55.5 55.5 55.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 48.8 47.6 45.9 44.2 39.4 32.8 27.0 21.4 16.3 11.6 6.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 19 22 25 31 30 23 18 14 14 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -11. -18. -22. -27. -30. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 0. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -8. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -14. -27. -44. -53. -61. -64. -62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 09/01/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 09/01/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)