* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/01/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 61 64 66 71 71 68 69 69 70 74 73 V (KT) LAND 55 57 61 64 66 71 71 68 69 69 70 74 73 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 58 60 62 65 66 65 63 60 60 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 16 20 20 24 33 26 24 20 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 10 3 6 3 0 4 -1 3 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 358 319 329 332 346 323 318 320 314 305 285 274 283 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 144 145 147 151 154 156 158 159 158 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 137 138 137 137 138 136 136 135 134 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 63 56 60 59 60 63 63 63 59 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 23 23 22 24 24 23 25 25 27 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 58 49 40 28 18 -6 -36 -68 -49 -37 -3 4 30 200 MB DIV 54 59 68 62 46 35 34 25 43 42 39 39 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 -8 2 22 15 6 16 2 10 5 LAND (KM) 1196 1121 1067 1018 893 725 654 693 778 863 933 969 1005 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.8 22.2 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.4 26.8 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.4 54.8 56.1 57.3 59.3 61.0 62.0 62.3 62.6 62.9 63.1 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 53 53 59 60 61 46 60 64 72 81 68 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 16. 16. 13. 14. 14. 15. 19. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/01/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/01/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)