* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 09/01/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 50 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 55 50 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 54 50 45 35 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 6 7 11 12 12 19 22 27 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 5 3 2 2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 114 146 167 190 165 212 214 200 197 194 195 212 215 SST (C) 24.8 24.1 23.3 22.4 21.8 21.0 20.4 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.7 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 103 94 85 79 70 64 66 65 64 65 68 74 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 50 51 46 48 48 44 38 35 37 33 32 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 19 19 16 14 13 10 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 59 47 30 18 16 25 37 32 37 30 38 44 39 200 MB DIV 1 21 8 3 -2 0 -14 -9 -5 0 0 2 9 700-850 TADV -1 3 5 7 5 9 14 4 9 7 11 9 10 LAND (KM) 489 543 590 634 678 777 924 1062 1177 1299 1427 1570 1774 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.2 117.9 118.8 119.7 121.3 123.1 124.7 126.0 127.3 128.6 130.6 133.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -18. -26. -33. -39. -41. -43. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -18. -34. -48. -63. -77. -88. -96.-102.-105. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 09/01/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)