* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 09/01/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 61 63 63 61 53 37 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 61 63 63 61 53 37 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 58 57 58 56 52 44 36 31 29 29 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 8 14 30 58 67 64 63 54 59 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 -3 0 3 1 9 0 0 1 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 349 337 289 232 220 199 209 220 238 257 273 306 N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 25.9 24.3 19.8 16.5 15.3 15.0 14.7 15.1 14.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 118 105 85 76 72 70 68 69 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 111 107 96 79 72 68 66 64 65 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.3 -52.9 -54.7 -57.0 -58.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 56 56 46 38 28 30 35 38 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 9 10 13 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -103 -105 -111 -70 -10 13 -13 -35 -124 -159 -176 -164 N/A 200 MB DIV 12 38 43 7 37 33 8 -26 -22 -12 -1 -3 N/A 700-850 TADV 26 20 2 0 -21 -101 -101 -154 -50 -36 3 46 N/A LAND (KM) 1401 1291 1199 1109 1077 1253 1426 975 637 415 204 37 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.9 37.2 39.2 41.2 45.5 49.9 53.1 54.9 55.9 55.5 55.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.9 47.6 46.2 44.1 42.0 36.7 30.4 24.7 19.7 15.5 11.8 7.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 22 26 27 30 27 21 15 11 11 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -2. -2. -4. -12. -28. -40. -48. -53. -58. -56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 09/01/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 09/01/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)