* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/01/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 67 68 66 63 66 67 66 71 71 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 67 68 66 63 66 67 66 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 65 66 67 67 65 62 60 59 60 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 18 16 16 27 32 23 26 18 18 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 9 10 7 1 2 4 0 4 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 324 326 336 320 311 337 314 315 307 283 261 244 269 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 142 145 146 148 152 155 156 157 159 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 138 139 138 137 137 135 133 134 135 132 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 62 59 59 59 58 62 65 60 63 59 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 22 23 20 22 22 20 23 25 26 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 42 32 19 15 0 -30 -54 -57 -58 -25 -20 13 17 200 MB DIV 41 65 50 71 39 41 -1 49 21 51 31 66 22 700-850 TADV 0 3 -1 2 0 8 7 21 8 22 20 10 6 LAND (KM) 1148 1088 1052 949 842 729 729 798 873 929 985 1056 1153 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.1 21.5 23.0 24.2 25.1 25.8 26.6 27.3 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.8 54.2 55.6 56.8 57.9 59.6 60.8 61.3 61.4 61.6 62.1 62.1 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 52 55 55 60 63 57 41 51 57 57 52 44 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 6. 3. 6. 7. 6. 11. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/01/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/01/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)