* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/01/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 67 68 65 67 69 73 71 78 80 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 67 68 65 67 69 73 71 78 80 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 66 67 68 67 65 64 65 68 72 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 19 24 29 27 21 22 12 8 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 1 0 0 -1 3 5 1 5 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 330 340 346 315 320 327 325 314 314 303 307 230 222 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 145 146 147 152 154 155 157 160 160 156 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 138 137 137 139 136 133 133 136 136 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 56 56 58 62 61 60 60 54 50 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 21 21 23 23 21 24 26 29 27 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 44 31 19 -1 -7 -34 -56 -38 -26 11 25 52 66 200 MB DIV 68 72 76 42 15 1 23 72 24 45 46 37 20 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 3 13 5 8 12 18 20 18 3 2 LAND (KM) 1028 1002 881 790 711 654 717 783 831 910 1007 1121 1243 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.2 23.7 24.6 25.1 25.9 26.9 27.9 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.2 57.4 58.4 59.4 61.0 61.9 62.2 62.2 62.2 62.3 62.0 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 11 11 10 7 4 3 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 58 62 64 65 47 56 61 61 60 48 41 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. 0. 2. 5. 3. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. 7. 9. 13. 11. 18. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/01/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/01/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)