* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 09/01/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 11 10 10 12 19 23 26 29 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 165 144 154 189 215 218 196 202 209 208 214 215 230 SST (C) 23.0 22.3 21.9 21.6 21.3 21.0 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 92 84 80 77 74 70 72 69 68 68 71 76 81 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 52 46 48 42 47 41 41 38 42 37 35 29 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 14 9 15 17 26 22 33 34 47 56 36 23 200 MB DIV 14 6 -3 -1 2 -14 -4 -11 -10 -10 -5 -8 4 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 12 11 12 6 7 7 10 8 19 10 LAND (KM) 609 664 717 796 882 1025 1145 1262 1367 1508 1651 1820 1936 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.0 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.1 119.9 121.0 122.0 123.8 125.1 126.4 127.6 129.1 130.9 133.5 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 7 6 6 6 7 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -21. -25. -29. -29. -29. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -23. -39. -53. -66. -78. -85. -91. -92. -92. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 09/01/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)