* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 09/01/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 57 59 58 60 52 36 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 57 59 58 60 52 36 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 53 52 51 48 41 35 30 28 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 16 24 27 33 58 57 54 48 44 54 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 3 6 9 7 -1 2 6 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 219 220 201 193 208 209 229 243 284 316 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.0 23.2 20.7 18.3 15.3 14.7 14.1 14.2 14.7 14.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 110 99 88 82 76 72 69 68 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 99 90 82 77 72 68 65 64 65 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -52.6 -50.9 -48.5 -49.7 -51.9 -55.8 -58.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 54 50 47 45 34 36 33 31 39 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 11 14 14 24 29 23 17 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -99 -56 9 46 45 70 106 31 -120 -182 -195 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 20 37 58 49 19 -2 -15 -12 -24 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -17 -12 -39 -151 -168 -102 -25 -31 -30 27 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1112 1053 1057 1163 1310 1168 733 525 294 104 -15 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.5 40.5 42.5 44.8 47.1 52.6 56.0 57.7 58.2 56.9 56.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.3 43.2 41.1 38.3 35.4 27.5 20.9 15.3 10.9 7.6 3.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 28 31 34 31 22 15 10 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 24 CX,CY: 14/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -1. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 14. 19. 13. 7. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 5. -3. -19. -31. -48. -53. -52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 09/01/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 09/01/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)