* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/01/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 57 55 59 59 61 65 67 66 67 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 57 55 59 59 61 65 67 66 67 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 54 54 55 55 55 54 54 56 57 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 19 24 25 27 26 25 20 21 22 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 3 2 3 2 0 1 0 7 3 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 337 334 314 310 317 308 302 314 306 297 282 278 N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 148 150 154 157 160 159 158 155 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 138 139 138 137 137 135 133 130 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 58 58 59 57 59 62 59 58 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 22 23 22 19 24 24 25 29 32 31 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 29 7 -1 -16 -54 -65 -51 -26 -9 21 12 N/A 200 MB DIV 71 77 49 6 13 5 59 37 57 37 48 39 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -3 6 12 23 0 15 18 23 17 14 7 N/A LAND (KM) 949 824 710 660 634 684 754 847 930 1024 1100 1193 1287 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.4 20.1 21.0 21.8 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.6 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 58.0 59.2 60.1 60.9 62.0 62.8 63.0 62.7 62.4 62.3 62.0 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 63 67 62 50 57 66 67 57 46 41 39 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. 0. 0. 1. 5. 6. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 4. 4. 6. 10. 12. 11. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/01/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/01/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)