* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 53 53 54 54 61 65 68 70 72 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 53 53 54 54 61 65 68 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 52 52 52 51 50 49 49 50 53 57 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 25 26 27 24 20 16 17 15 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 4 0 0 1 0 6 0 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 339 313 310 323 315 306 302 310 299 291 275 304 311 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 150 153 157 158 159 159 157 155 154 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 139 139 140 139 135 134 133 132 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -50.7 -50.1 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 58 57 60 60 62 59 58 53 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 23 23 23 24 25 32 35 37 36 40 850 MB ENV VOR 22 -1 -4 -16 -37 -50 -35 -26 6 24 39 41 50 200 MB DIV 64 42 36 24 11 35 60 54 46 26 35 38 27 700-850 TADV -1 5 16 14 6 8 12 10 10 12 8 8 8 LAND (KM) 846 760 691 678 687 778 863 920 989 1058 1138 1211 1289 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.2 23.0 24.6 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.4 28.1 28.8 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.9 59.9 60.7 61.4 62.3 62.6 62.7 62.5 62.3 62.1 62.1 62.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 11 10 7 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 63 66 58 46 48 62 64 59 50 43 40 38 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 9. 11. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/02/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)