* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 09/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 27 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 15 20 24 21 22 15 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 2 0 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 157 175 186 193 200 200 199 203 203 212 208 239 278 SST (C) 21.9 21.6 21.2 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.1 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.6 22.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 80 77 73 71 73 74 72 74 79 84 88 89 89 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 47 44 46 40 43 40 33 29 27 24 22 21 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 21 30 32 30 42 42 44 49 47 44 33 200 MB DIV -4 -1 0 -9 -21 -9 -16 -10 -24 -5 -14 -18 -3 700-850 TADV 3 11 10 12 9 6 7 7 7 4 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 717 789 867 958 1052 1218 1395 1561 1739 1922 2104 1945 1747 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.2 21.8 21.2 20.7 20.3 20.1 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.9 121.9 122.9 123.9 125.6 127.4 129.0 130.6 132.3 134.3 136.2 138.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -19. -17. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -27. -44. -57. -70. -79. -82. -83. -83. -81. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 09/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)