* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 09/02/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 43 44 51 48 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 43 44 51 48 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 40 39 37 33 28 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 24 37 51 61 48 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 10 8 12 6 0 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 211 200 209 209 202 223 233 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 20.5 18.2 16.4 15.3 14.5 14.1 13.9 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 87 82 79 76 72 69 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 82 78 76 73 68 65 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 -52.2 -50.9 -49.1 -48.9 -51.3 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 48 46 35 36 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 13 13 14 26 29 23 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 29 30 25 48 102 66 -83 -164 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 70 35 24 25 15 -20 -29 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -44 -94 -65 -140 -132 -32 -43 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1100 1226 1393 1383 1023 594 384 160 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.5 44.8 47.1 50.1 53.0 56.5 58.1 58.4 56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.5 37.4 34.3 29.9 25.4 18.2 12.5 8.3 5.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 32 37 41 34 22 14 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 27 CX,CY: 19/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 7. 0. -7. -12. -15. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 12. 18. 12. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 6. 3. -13. -30. -35. -41. -45. -44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 09/02/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 09/02/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED