* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 09/02/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 7 10 13 20 19 19 16 15 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 165 176 172 181 176 187 178 201 188 202 200 275 286 SST (C) 21.9 21.6 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.2 23.5 23.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 80 77 75 75 76 76 76 80 87 94 98 97 100 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 43 44 43 42 40 35 33 27 27 25 24 24 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 6 5 4 2 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 24 31 33 26 49 44 50 29 46 33 30 200 MB DIV -1 -2 -10 -11 -1 -6 -12 -9 -12 0 -24 -2 -8 700-850 TADV 9 10 10 8 7 11 4 8 6 4 5 0 4 LAND (KM) 812 887 965 1048 1132 1305 1475 1638 1815 2033 2091 1877 1651 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 21.4 20.9 20.3 19.5 18.7 18.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.7 122.6 123.5 124.4 126.2 127.8 129.3 130.9 132.8 134.9 137.0 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -12. -9. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -24. -40. -53. -65. -71. -74. -73. -72. -68. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 09/02/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)