* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 09/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 39 42 51 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 39 42 51 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 33 31 27 22 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 31 41 52 57 55 36 32 37 43 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 11 11 14 22 7 -6 7 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 209 209 213 220 214 220 259 304 346 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.5 18.0 16.5 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.8 13.3 14.7 15.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 81 79 78 76 70 65 66 69 70 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 77 76 75 72 67 62 63 65 65 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -52.2 -51.1 -49.6 -47.0 -47.3 -51.0 -57.1 -59.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 47 48 48 42 44 37 31 33 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 15 18 32 31 24 12 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 42 30 42 97 179 95 -104 -198 -212 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 40 28 32 46 7 -1 -30 -19 -13 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -29 -78 -63 -110 -113 -22 -60 -44 21 47 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1166 1375 1454 1038 698 424 242 110 21 85 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.0 47.5 49.9 52.9 55.8 59.1 60.1 59.4 56.5 54.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.1 34.5 30.8 25.6 20.4 12.7 7.9 5.8 6.0 4.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 35 39 43 34 19 9 9 14 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 30 CX,CY: 17/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 10. 2. -5. -11. -14. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -4. 0. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 16. 19. 12. 1. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 2. 11. 5. -14. -36. -53. -58. -63. -63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 09/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.6/ -1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 09/02/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED