* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 53 55 58 56 59 62 65 70 75 78 V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 53 55 58 56 59 62 65 70 75 78 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 52 52 52 52 51 51 50 51 55 62 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 16 17 24 24 25 24 19 8 9 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 7 2 0 -1 4 2 1 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 309 303 289 286 288 296 302 300 287 282 263 3 308 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 156 157 158 159 158 157 157 154 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 139 140 138 135 133 131 130 131 128 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -50.6 -49.9 -49.1 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 52 56 51 54 58 57 60 57 56 50 51 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 22 25 28 27 30 35 36 38 40 44 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -15 -28 -37 -36 -27 -31 2 8 21 27 37 60 200 MB DIV 19 23 16 52 93 38 24 32 47 42 52 54 61 700-850 TADV 8 5 1 1 7 7 12 15 12 2 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 608 605 627 675 733 840 925 973 1018 1072 1150 1211 1251 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.6 25.7 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.8 28.6 29.2 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 60.9 61.7 62.5 62.9 63.3 63.5 63.5 63.3 63.2 63.2 63.5 63.7 63.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 8 7 5 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 56 53 65 67 69 69 54 47 42 40 40 40 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 4. 7. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/02/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)