* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 09/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 10 12 14 18 15 17 15 17 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 180 186 181 171 182 192 190 203 197 207 230 280 276 SST (C) 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.1 23.1 23.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 75 74 74 76 76 75 77 83 90 93 93 91 92 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 43 38 42 39 38 35 32 28 25 23 23 24 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 4 4 2 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 32 34 27 39 36 32 30 26 31 24 32 200 MB DIV -1 -7 -17 -17 3 -8 -8 -3 -7 -12 -3 -4 8 700-850 TADV 10 10 8 7 6 10 5 7 0 5 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 903 978 1054 1136 1218 1402 1558 1744 1941 2137 1990 1781 1634 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.6 21.2 20.6 20.0 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.9 123.7 124.6 125.4 127.1 128.6 130.3 132.1 134.0 135.8 137.8 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -7. -5. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -13. -12. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -24. -37. -51. -61. -66. -69. -68. -68. -65. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 09/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)