* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 48 50 50 54 60 66 70 71 75 79 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 48 50 50 54 60 66 70 71 75 79 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 48 47 47 46 47 48 52 57 63 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 26 23 19 27 20 18 10 13 4 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 4 12 -2 0 5 3 -2 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 316 302 307 312 305 317 310 294 285 275 333 306 108 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 155 156 157 159 158 157 157 155 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 139 137 135 134 134 132 130 130 129 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.2 -50.7 -49.4 -49.3 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 56 57 58 63 55 52 49 52 47 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 20 23 25 23 26 30 34 34 34 37 44 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -30 -41 -47 -44 -48 -15 -11 16 14 42 45 80 200 MB DIV 9 2 31 75 98 33 59 8 60 51 63 32 64 700-850 TADV 9 1 6 14 18 9 14 10 8 5 5 2 5 LAND (KM) 601 617 648 697 751 833 895 961 1003 1056 1117 1177 1233 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.0 62.6 62.9 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.1 63.3 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 7 5 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 53 55 66 67 68 68 61 51 45 40 40 40 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 7. 11. 11. 10. 12. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 4. 10. 16. 20. 21. 25. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/02/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/02/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)