* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102012 09/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 36 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 36 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 16 16 15 12 13 13 12 11 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 43 51 43 54 53 64 83 84 94 108 78 101 108 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.4 25.1 22.9 21.6 20.6 20.1 20.1 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 141 137 127 114 91 77 66 61 61 60 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 80 79 75 68 65 61 59 59 51 45 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 34 24 28 37 28 26 16 14 1 4 5 200 MB DIV 69 75 64 48 14 15 -23 -5 0 -6 7 11 18 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -11 -5 -4 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 436 483 440 434 461 531 582 691 766 846 924 1041 1194 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -13. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -6. -16. -26. -37. -44. -51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102012 TEN 09/02/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)