* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 50 51 50 54 58 63 65 69 75 78 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 50 51 50 54 58 63 65 69 75 78 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 49 48 47 47 48 51 55 61 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 29 30 29 24 20 18 14 10 5 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 7 3 -1 3 2 7 4 3 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 304 295 297 298 320 309 296 281 265 271 262 309 102 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 157 158 158 158 158 158 157 155 154 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 138 135 133 132 132 130 129 128 126 124 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.1 -49.9 -49.4 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 57 56 61 58 56 52 50 51 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 23 23 21 24 28 32 31 34 40 44 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -42 -46 -49 -42 -36 -9 -10 8 14 27 40 68 200 MB DIV 6 46 83 47 23 18 33 46 43 50 32 50 61 700-850 TADV 7 3 8 18 8 13 10 23 7 6 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 680 717 759 802 848 920 969 1010 1062 1121 1185 1251 1309 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.0 25.5 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.1 28.7 29.4 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 61.9 62.3 62.5 62.7 62.7 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.6 62.6 62.9 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 61 65 64 57 53 48 42 42 41 37 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 8. 11. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 4. 8. 13. 15. 19. 25. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/03/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/03/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)