* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102012 09/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 35 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 35 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 16 13 17 14 15 9 9 12 18 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 55 54 64 64 55 76 82 113 107 83 93 105 153 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.8 25.2 23.0 21.3 20.6 19.8 19.4 19.3 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 136 132 115 92 73 66 58 58 59 59 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 79 78 73 72 68 66 65 62 57 53 45 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 12 11 9 7 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 42 35 26 27 25 24 28 19 8 -6 -9 -22 -25 200 MB DIV 75 58 34 29 29 -2 -6 5 16 -8 9 7 5 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -3 -3 -6 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 467 425 421 440 459 476 564 616 690 762 815 903 1015 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.1 22.3 23.3 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.4 112.5 113.4 114.3 116.1 117.9 119.6 121.0 122.1 122.8 123.8 125.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. 0. -11. -22. -34. -45. -51. -57. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102012 TEN 09/03/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)