* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/03/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 54 56 62 68 70 76 80 79 81 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 54 56 62 68 70 76 80 79 81 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 49 50 52 55 59 66 72 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 28 29 22 18 15 15 16 1 2 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 10 3 -2 3 1 6 1 0 4 1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 291 294 305 318 314 300 288 280 276 225 277 108 164 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 157 157 159 159 156 156 157 154 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 136 135 133 134 133 130 129 131 128 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.1 -50.8 -49.6 -49.7 -48.0 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 57 57 60 55 52 50 55 50 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 24 24 23 23 29 34 34 38 41 41 45 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -47 -49 -42 -36 -27 2 19 29 55 59 96 111 200 MB DIV 49 75 56 26 27 47 31 62 51 76 28 89 50 700-850 TADV 7 8 18 11 10 17 8 15 13 4 2 8 3 LAND (KM) 693 733 778 805 834 896 958 1010 1041 1088 1157 1226 1287 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.1 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.9 28.6 29.3 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.3 62.5 62.7 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.8 63.0 63.2 63.5 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 52 58 65 66 65 59 52 45 42 42 42 37 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 7. 11. 11. 14. 17. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 18. 20. 26. 30. 29. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/03/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/03/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)