* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/03/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 51 58 64 71 76 82 84 87 83 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 51 58 64 71 76 82 84 87 83 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 49 49 49 51 55 59 65 72 78 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 27 20 18 14 16 9 9 4 5 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 -1 5 6 3 1 0 0 1 3 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 303 305 310 299 300 294 275 269 288 219 112 161 185 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 158 159 159 160 160 160 158 157 156 153 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 135 135 134 134 134 133 131 130 131 129 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -51.1 -50.5 -49.7 -48.8 -47.5 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 57 59 56 52 47 48 48 49 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 21 21 27 31 34 37 40 42 47 46 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -47 -42 -38 -34 -3 4 27 39 59 85 108 123 200 MB DIV 59 59 37 31 62 46 48 49 46 55 51 38 44 700-850 TADV 8 19 8 8 12 3 4 3 3 2 4 2 6 LAND (KM) 704 740 777 812 846 896 949 1002 1056 1116 1173 1234 1126 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.3 28.9 30.0 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.0 63.2 63.3 63.3 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.6 64.0 64.4 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 54 58 60 60 54 46 42 43 44 41 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 8. 14. 21. 26. 32. 34. 37. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/03/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/03/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)