* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP102012 09/03/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 29 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 29 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 17 18 19 14 16 12 13 17 23 15 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 2 0 -1 -1 1 -5 1 -2 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 50 61 56 65 67 59 74 82 97 118 121 148 175 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.7 24.3 22.7 21.4 20.5 19.8 19.4 19.0 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 128 125 120 105 88 74 64 58 58 58 58 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 73 72 68 69 64 63 62 56 49 43 38 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 8 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 23 19 18 21 9 6 -2 -2 -16 -18 -23 200 MB DIV 43 32 41 25 -6 -2 -10 3 8 9 6 10 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -10 -8 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -9 -9 LAND (KM) 392 397 426 413 428 518 544 593 689 744 777 777 775 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.4 24.2 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.4 27.1 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.6 117.3 118.7 120.0 121.4 122.2 122.7 123.2 123.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -31. -44. -57. -69. -78. -85. -90. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102012 JOHN 09/03/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)