* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/03/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 51 54 62 70 77 82 85 87 88 85 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 51 54 62 70 77 82 85 87 88 85 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 51 55 60 65 71 77 81 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 19 18 15 12 2 7 2 3 4 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 8 2 0 0 7 3 10 1 7 3 2 SHEAR DIR 322 317 318 301 289 300 285 271 14 272 130 215 200 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 157 157 158 160 160 160 159 158 154 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 135 133 133 133 135 134 134 134 133 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.1 -50.7 -49.4 -49.6 -47.8 -47.1 -46.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 56 56 51 50 47 47 45 49 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 21 21 25 29 34 36 39 40 41 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -40 -36 -32 -24 -7 12 25 48 54 85 97 116 200 MB DIV 46 42 72 68 74 46 59 30 63 24 77 17 70 700-850 TADV 15 8 19 10 11 3 5 5 4 4 8 9 9 LAND (KM) 661 696 733 758 784 829 872 922 973 1033 1127 1242 1148 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.5 29.7 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.2 63.3 63.3 63.3 63.5 63.5 63.6 63.7 63.9 64.1 64.4 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 55 56 58 59 60 62 57 47 41 38 41 32 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 13. 16. 16. 17. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 37. 38. 35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/03/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/03/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)